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A univariate analysis: Short-term forecasts of container throughput in the port of Antwerp

Author

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  • RASHED, Yasmine
  • MEERSMAN, Hilde
  • VAN DE VOORDE, Eddy
  • VANELSLANDER, Thierry

Abstract

The relation between transportation and economic activity is complex and interrelated. From this complexity arises the difficulty of forecasting the port throughput, which plays an essential part in planning the port operations, not only for the port stakeholders but also for the development of hinterland activities and connectivity network. The aim of the univariate method used in this paper is to estimate short-term forecasting and to provide initial insight of the stochastic process for further research in the multiple regression analyses. The SARIMA model is found to be quite appropriate for the container throughput since seasonality exists in the time series. The advantage of the univariate method is that it is independent of other variables, provide a generic and a simple model that can be updated frequently and the model can be applied to other ports.

Suggested Citation

  • RASHED, Yasmine & MEERSMAN, Hilde & VAN DE VOORDE, Eddy & VANELSLANDER, Thierry, 2013. "A univariate analysis: Short-term forecasts of container throughput in the port of Antwerp," Working Papers 2013022, University of Antwerp, Faculty of Business and Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:ant:wpaper:2013022
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    Cited by:

    1. Yasmine Rashed & Hilde Meersman & Eddy Van de Voorde & Thierry Vanelslander, 2017. "Short-term forecast of container throughout: An ARIMA-intervention model for the port of Antwerp," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 19(4), pages 749-764, December.
    2. Francesco Parola & Giovanni Satta & Theo Notteboom & Luca Persico, 2021. "Revisiting traffic forecasting by port authorities in the context of port planning and development," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 23(3), pages 444-494, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Container throughput; Univariate analysis; ARIMA; Forecasting; Seasonality;
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