The central purpose of this study is to assess the performance of the inflation targeting regime adopted in Brazil, in a context of high exchange rate volatility, as well as high public debt. In order to accomplish this, a Vector Autoregressive methodology was used. The results suggest that: i) the interest rate is an important instrument of monetary policy; ii) there is presence of inflationary inertia; iii) changes in interest rate to fight inflation can provoke more inflation; iv) the inflation rate is quite sensitive to the exchange rate volatility; v) the inflation rate answers, in way erratic and not significant, to the variations in the government's nominal result; vi) inflation rate response to the innovations in the output gap is not significant; vii) output gap responses to inflation rate shocks does not reveal to be significant; and viii) the monetary policy affects the output gap. The main conclusion is that inflation target in Brazil is limited by the no coordination between monetary and fiscal policies, as well as the external vulnerability.
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Length: Date of creation: 2005 Date of revision: Handle: RePEc:anp:en2005:035
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Find related papers by JEL classification: E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
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