This paper investigates the presence of non-linear mechanisms of the pass- through from exchange rate to inflation in Brazil. In particular, it estimates a Phillips curve with a threshold for the passthrough. The paper examines whether the short-run magnitude of the pass-through is affected by the business cycle, direction and magnitude of the exchange rate change and volatility of the exchange rate. For that purpose, three variables are tested as thresholds: i) output gap, ii) exchange rate change, and iii) exchange rate volatility. The results indicate that the short-run pass-through is higher when the economy is booming, when the exchange rate depreciates above some threshold and when the exchange rate volatility is lower. These results have important implications for monetary policy and are possibly related to pricing-to-market behavior, menu costs of price adjustment and uncertainty about the degree of persistence in exchange rate movements.
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Length: Date of creation: 2005 Date of revision: Handle: RePEc:anp:en2005:033
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Find related papers by JEL classification: E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
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