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Duración del Desempleo y Ciclo Económico en la Argentina

Author

Listed:
  • Federico Cerimedo

Abstract

El estado del ciclo económico ha tenido incidencia sobre la duración del desempleo en la Argentina. En este trabajo se ofrecen distintas alternativas para cuantificar este efecto. Se estima un modelo para la probabilidad de experimentar un tránsito de la desocupación al empleo, a partir de historias de desempleo individuales construidas con el panel rotatorio de la Encuesta Permanente de Hogares. La muestra cubre el área del Gran Buenos Aires durante el período 1995-2003. Entre los resultados obtenidos, se encuentra que cuando la economía crece 4%, la probabilidad de experimentar un tránsito del desempleo al empleo es 16,2% mayor que cuando se contrae a igual tasa. A su vez, se comprueba que este efecto no es homogéneo entre sectores. Se halla que la tasa de salida del desempleo es 31% mayor para las personas con último empleo en el sector industrial respecto a aquellas que trabajaron por última vez en el sector servicios.

Suggested Citation

  • Federico Cerimedo, 2004. "Duración del Desempleo y Ciclo Económico en la Argentina," IIE, Working Papers 053, IIE, Universidad Nacional de La Plata.
    • Handle: RePEc:akh:wpaper:053
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    desempleo; empleo; duración; ciclo económico; Argentina.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J6 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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