IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ajx/wpaper/4.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Importance of Terms of Trade Shocks: Kazakhstan

Author

Listed:
  • Alisher Tolepbergen

    (NAC Analytica, Nazarbayev University)

Abstract

The conventional wisdom assumes that terms of trade shocks are the main drivers of business cycle dynamics in emerging exporting economies. This paper studies the effect of terms of trade shocks on key macroeconomic variables for the Kazakhstani economy. Empirical SVAR model estimates suggest that the terms of trade shocks account for 12 % of output variation for the economy. Further, three sectoral DSGE model with estimated structural parameters predict the modest importance of the terms of trade shocks for small open economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Alisher Tolepbergen, 2019. "The Importance of Terms of Trade Shocks: Kazakhstan," NAC Analytica Working Paper 4, NAC Analytica, Nazarbayev University, revised Jul 2020.
    • Handle: RePEc:ajx:wpaper:4
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://nacanalytica.com/images/macro/Papers/Terms_of_Trade_Shocks_Kazakhstan.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Terms of Trade; DSGE; SVAR; Kazakhstan;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B22 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Macroeconomics
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ajx:wpaper:4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Alisher Tolepbergen (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nacnukz.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.