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Model selection with Pearson’s correlation, concentration and Lorenz curves under autocalibration

Author

Listed:
  • Denuit, Michel

    (Université catholique de Louvain, LIDAM/ISBA, Belgium)

  • Trufin, Julien

    (Université Libre de Bruxelles)

Abstract

Wüthrich (Eur Actuar J, https://doi.org/10.1007/s13385-022-00339-9, 2023) established that the Gini index is a consistent scoring rule in the class of autocalibrated predictors. This note further explores performances criteria in this class. Elementary Pearson’s correlation turns out to be consistent when restricted to autocalibrated predictors. Also, any performance measure that is minimized for predictors that are comonotonic with the true regression model is consistent under autocalibration. This provides a new proof of the consistency for Gini index. In addition, it is established that the concentration curve of the true model is the lowest possible concentration curve under autocalibration and that the same property holds true for Lorenz curve.

Suggested Citation

  • Denuit, Michel & Trufin, Julien, 2023. "Model selection with Pearson’s correlation, concentration and Lorenz curves under autocalibration," LIDAM Reprints ISBA 2023025, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
  • Handle: RePEc:aiz:louvar:2023025
    DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13385-023-00353-5
    Note: In: European Actuarial Journal, 2023, vol. 13(2), p. 871-878
    as

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