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A spline-based time-varying reproduction number for modelling epidemiological outbreaks

Author

Listed:
  • Pircalabelu, Eugen

    (Université catholique de Louvain, LIDAM/ISBA, Belgium)

Abstract

We develop in this manuscript a method for performing estimation and inference for the reproduction number of an epidemiological outbreak, focusing on the COVID-19 epidemic. The estimator is time-dependent and uses spline modelling to adapt to changes in the outbreak. This is accomplished by directly modelling the series of new infections as a function of time and subsequently using the derivative of the function to define a time-varying reproduction number, which is then used to assess the evolution of the epidemic for several countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Pircalabelu, Eugen, 2023. "A spline-based time-varying reproduction number for modelling epidemiological outbreaks," LIDAM Reprints ISBA 2023017, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
    • Handle: RePEc:aiz:louvar:2023017
    DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/jrsssc/qlad027
    Note: In: Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series C: Applied Statistics, 2023, vol. 72(3), p. 688-702
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