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The Dynamic Effects of Weather Shocks on Agricultural Production

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Abstract

This paper investigates the dynamic effects of weather shocks on monthly agricultural production in Peru, using a Local Projection framework. An adverse weather shock, measured by an excess of heat or rain, always generates a delayed negative downturn in agricultural production, but its magnitude and duration depend on several factors, such as the type of crop concerned or the timing at which it occurs. On average, a weather shock –a temperature shock– can cause a monthly decline of 5% in agricultural production for up to four consecutive months. The response is time-dependent: shocks occurring during the growing season exhibit a much larger response. At the macroeconomic level, weather shocks are recessionary and entail a decline in inflation, agricultural production, exports, exchange rate and GDP.

Suggested Citation

  • Cédric Crofils & Ewen Gallic & Gauthier Vermandel, 2024. "The Dynamic Effects of Weather Shocks on Agricultural Production," AMSE Working Papers 2402, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    • Handle: RePEc:aim:wpaimx:2402
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    File URL: https://www.amse-aixmarseille.fr/sites/default/files/working_papers/wp_2024_-_nr_02.pdf
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    Keywords

    weather shocks; agriculture; Local projections; VAR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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