تقدير نماذج المحاكاة لأسواق المنتجات الحيوانية الغذائية

The study provided an econometric market model, which is composed of three estimated function for each considered commodity (red meat, poultry meat, table-eggs and milk). They simulate the demand, supply (domestic production) and imports (as a proportion of the domestic supply). Proper identification variables were introduced for demand (price and income). For supply the lag response of price was applied as identification for supply (three years for red meat and one year for other commodities). A dummy variable was inserted to reflect the impacts of the period after ecomic reform on the market behaviour. The study used the model (s) to project the market equilibrium price, at which the quantity supplied and demanded are determined in the year 2000, as well as the per capita consumption. These estimates were con¬ducted under a scenario that simulates the market economy environment. Egypt competitiveness whit respect to concerned four commodities eas tested, under the expected international prices and liberalization of nude, particularly the impacts of free imports flow on domestic production and consumer welfare.