تقدير الطلب الفعال وتوقعات الفجوة السوقية لمنتجات الدواجن فى مصر

The study aimed to estimate the rate of growth of effective demand for poultry products in Egypt until 2015, to compare it with the projected growth in production estimated from time series 1991-2010, The results showed that The average annual growth rate M effective demand for chicken meat was estimated at about 2.3% per capita and 4.4% at the national level -after adding population growth-which was expect. to face a lower growth in domestic Proudhon of about ) 9% per year. These results would indict an expected small shortfall, due to an expected modest growth in demand for chicken me.. Which M turn was not only due to a relatively low income elasticity of demand for chick. meat (0.423), it was also due to relative low population growth rate (2.07%). The annual growth rate per capita of table eggs estimated as 1.08, and the national annual growth rate of effective demand for table eggs was about 3%, that would face an annual growth rate in supply from domestic production of about 3.06% Such expectations indicated an excess in production than demand for the table eggs market which in turn would Dad ta recession in the domestic table eggs industry, unless a development in demand associated with diversity in the types of supplied products would exist. However the estimated annual rate of growth in prices of both products was 7%,8% , which might imply high growth in cost of production behind the high growth in price in table eggs and due to red meat demand pressure on the demand for chicken meat with improvement in technology towards lower production costs. The study provided some recommendations, providing market incentives to export expected excess table eggs production to the nearest markets of deficit such as the Libyan market and Gaza Strip, to release the current barriers on imports frozen broiler of reasonable quality and moderate price as well as encouraging more growth in production associated with improvement in technology towards lower production nut. in order m absorb part of the Increasing demand for red meat which would be reflected in higher red meat Price and greater pressure on the consumption of thicken meat