Western Europe's Beef Production, Consumption, and Trade: Situation and Outlook

A conservative forecast of a 10-percent increase in 1974 West European beef and veal production (with continued depressed consumption) would result in more than a 650,000-metric ton fall in the net import requirements of the region. Beef production could easily go higher, equaling or even exceeding consumption. Outside suppliers--mainly Latin America, Eastern Europe, and to a lesser extent, Oceania--will likely bear the brunt of this decline in imports, as actions by the West European countries to end the meat "glut" have been characterized by import embargoes, levies, and tariffs and restrictive import licensing. As suppliers seek to divert exports, the U.S. market will receive increased pressure. However, sanitary and health regulations will prohibit the major suppliers of the West European market from shipping fresh, chilled, or frozen beef to the United States. Only cooked beef is allowed. The 1974 surge in beef production in Western Europe results from the large herd buildup over the past 2 years, which was stimulated by improved profitability in the dairy sector and a jump in beef prices. Production forecasts for 1974 will not cut significantly into herd size, so high production levels can be expected to continue into 1975 and 1976.