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Global Warming, Endogenous Risk and Irreversibility

Author

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  • Fisher, Anthony C.
  • Narain, Urvashi

Abstract

This paper develops two-period analytical and numerical models to study the question: given a stock of greenhouse gases that poses a risk of future damages of unknown magnitude, and the possibility of learning about damages, how do sunk abatement capital and a nondegradable stock of greenhouse gases affect optimal first-period investment? We show that both affect investment, the former negatively and the latter positively. Additionally, endogenous risk--the risk of damages dependent on the stock of gases-- results in an increase in optimal investment for any level of capital "sunkness" or greenhouse gas degradability. Quantitatively, though, the effect of sunk capital is much stronger than the effect of greenhouse gas irreversibility or that of endogenous risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Fisher, Anthony C. & Narain, Urvashi, 2002. "Global Warming, Endogenous Risk and Irreversibility," CUDARE Working Papers 25107, University of California, Berkeley, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:ucbecw:25107
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.25107
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    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/25107/files/wp020908.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Minoru Nakada, 2006. "Distributional Conflicts and the Timing of Environmental Policy," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 29-38, March.
    2. Geoffrey Heal, 2008. "Climate Economics: A Meta-Review and Some Suggestions," NBER Working Papers 13927, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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