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Análise Da Estacionalidade De Preços Da Mamona No Paraná

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  • Silva, Gerson Henrique Da
  • Esperancini, Maura Seiko Tsutsui
  • Melo, Carmen Ozana De
  • Bueno, Osmar De Carvalho
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    Abstract

    Com o aumento de preços e consumo do petróleo, tem-se procurado na biomassa alternativa energética renovável para sua substituição. Dentre as culturas capazes de atender à produção de insumo destinado à obtenção de energia renovável encontra-se a mamona. Objetivou-se, neste trabalho, conhecer o índice de variação estacional do preço da mamona, pois é essencial para a previsão de seu preço em determinada época do ano. Utilizou-se o preço da mamona recebido pelos produtores paranaenses e adotou-se a metodologia da média geométrica móvel centralizada de 12 meses, obtendo-se um padrão comportamental (sazonal). A análise mostrou que os preços tendem a ser maiores nos meses de janeiro a maio e, no período seguinte, a tendência é de queda de preços, coincidindo com o início da comercialização. Conclui-se que para os produtores as melhores épocas para a negociação da produção ocorrem durante os meses janeiro a maio e dezembro. Já os intermediários, devem realizar suas compras de junho a novembro de cada ano. -----------------------------------------------With the increase petroleum price and consumption, one have looked for renewable energetic alternative for its substitution. Among the crops capable of accommodating the input production designated to obtaining renewable energy castor bean is found. In this work, we aimed at recognizing the seasonal variation index of the price of castor bean, for it is essential for the prediction of its price in a determined period of the year. The price received by the producers from Paraná State was utilized and the methodology of the centralized mobile geometric average was applied. The analysis showed that the prices tend to be higher within the months from January through May and in the following period there is a tendency for decrease in prices coinciding with the beginning of commercialization period. One concludes that for the producers the best periods for the negotiation of the production occur within the months from January through May and December. The intermediators, however, must realize their purchases from June through November of each year.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Sociedade Brasileira de Economia, Administracao e Sociologia Rural (SOBER) in its series 46th Congress, July 20-23, 2008, Rio Branco, Acre, Brasil with number 109119.

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    Date of creation: Jul 2008
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    Handle: RePEc:ags:sbrfsr:109119

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    Web page: http://www.sober.org.br/
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    Keywords: mamona; produtores; preço; sazonalidade; biodiesel; castor bean; producers; price; seasonality; biodiesel; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy;

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