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Energia Renovável: Uma Análise Sobre Oferta E Demanda De Etanol No Brasil

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  • Oliveira, Michelle Pinto
  • Alencar, Junia Rodrigues de
  • Souza, Geraldo da Silva e
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    Abstract

    A grande necessidade de diminuir a dependência em relação ao petróleo devido aos seus preços em constante elevação, a preocupação com o meio ambiente (protocolo de kyoto) e a crescente demanda por carros flex tem colocado o etanol - uma energia totalmente renovável - em papel de destaque, como fonte alternativa de energia. A demanda e a oferta por este biocombustível são crescentes nos últimos anos e com grande possibilidade de se manter forte e dinâmica por vários anos. Neste contexto, o estudo teve como objetivo analisar quais as variáveis que afetaram a oferta e a demanda de etanol no Brasil, no período de 1995 a 2006. O método de análise utilizado foi o modelo de equilíbrio simultâneo por meio de mínimos quadrados em dois estágios, com correção de variância via métodos de momentos generalizados (GMM). Para ilustrar o uso do modelo em simulações de políticas, investiga-se o efeito de um aumento relativo no preço do petróleo no mercado do etanol, ceteris paribus. Os resultados do modelo foram significativos, mas o interessante é que o álcool não se mostrou substituto perfeito da gasolina no período analisado, pois o seu papel fundamental foi de aditivo da gasolina. ----------------------------------------------The great necessity for reducing the dependency upon oil due to its price, which is constantly increasing, the concern about the environment (Kyoto Protocol) and the increasing demand for flex cars have highlighted the role of ethanol - a totally renewable source of energy. The supply and demand for this biofuel are increasing in the past years and with a great chance to keep strong and dynamic for many years. In this context, the objective of the study was to analyse which variables affected the supply and demand for ethanol in Brazil, considering the period from 1995 to 2006. The method of analysis used was a simultaneous equilibrium model by means of two stages, least squares with correction of the variance by the generalized method of moments (GMM). To illustrate the use of the model in policy simulation it is studied the effect of a relative increase in oil price in the market of ethanol, ceteris paribus. The results of the model were significant, but what is interesting is that the alcohol did not appear to be a perfect substitutive for gasoline in the mentioned period, since his fundamental role was of an additive of gasoline.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Sociedade Brasileira de Economia, Administracao e Sociologia Rural (SOBER) in its series 46th Congress, July 20-23, 2008, Rio Branco, Acre, Brasil with number 108835.

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    Date of creation: Jul 2008
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    Handle: RePEc:ags:sbrfsr:108835

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    Web page: http://www.sober.org.br/
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    Keywords: Etanol; energia renovável; biocombustível; oferta e demanda; equações simultâneas; Ethanol; renewable energy; biofuel; supply; demand; simultaneous equations; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy;

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