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Aspectos Nacionais E Regionais Do Crescimento Da Produção Brasileira De Cana-De-Açúcar

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  • Satolo, Luiz Fernando
  • Diehl, Daiane
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    Abstract

    O cultivo da cana-de-açúcar tem apresentado um expressivo crescimento ao longo de todo o território nacional, com destaque para a região Centro-Sul. O objetivo desse estudo é investigar como aspectos regionais (ou seja, a adoção de inovações tecnológicas) – representados pela evolução da produtividade nos principais Estados produtores – e nacionais (ou seja, as condições de mercado) – representados pela evolução do preço médio de açúcar e álcool – têm contribuído para a expansão da agroindústria canavieira no Brasil. A oferta dos 10 Estados brasileiros com maior produção de cana-de-açúcar foi estimada através de um modelo de regressões aparentemente não-relacionadas (SUR). Os dados anuais abrangeram as safras de 1990/91 a 2004/05. Exceto por Pernambuco e Mato Grosso, a evolução da produção de cana-de-açúcar nos Estados analisados não apresentou uma relação significativa com o nível de preço de açúcar e álcool. Entretanto, a influência da produtividade foi significativa em todos os Estados. De acordo com os resultados estimados, aumentos de produtividade em Alagoas, Paraíba, Pernambuco, Minas Gerais, Paraná, Mato Grosso e Goiás podem levar a um aumento mais que proporcional da produção; já em São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro e Mato Grosso do Sul, os ganhos na produção podem ser menos que proporcionais. De qualquer forma, pôde-se concluir que aspectos regionais têm sido mais importantes que os nacionais para explicar o crescimento recente da produção canavieira no Brasil.---------------------------------------------Sugar cane crop has recently presented an expressive growth throughout Brazil, mainly in the Center-South region. The objective of this paper is to investigate how regional factors (i.e., the adoption of technogical innovations) – represented by the evolution of sugar cane yield in the main producer States – and national factors (i.e., market conditions) – represented by the evolution of sugar and ethanol average price – has contributed for the expansion of cane production in Brazil. Sugar cane production in the top 10 Brazilian producer States was estimated through a Seemingly Unrelated Regressions (SUR) model. The annual data covered the period between the crops of 1990/91 and 2004/05. Besides Pernambuco and Mato Grosso, the evolution of sugar cane production in the States analyzed didn’t present a significant relation with the sugar and ethanol price level. However, the yield influence was significant in all States. According to the results, yield increments in Alagoas, Paraiba, Pernambuco, Minas Gerais, Parana, Mato Grosso e Goias may lead to a more than proportional increase in production; but in Sao Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and Mato Grosso do Sul, those gains may be less than proportional. On either way, the regional factors has been the more important than the national ones to explain the recent developments on sugar cane production in Brazil.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Sociedade Brasileira de Economia, Administracao e Sociologia Rural (SOBER) in its series 46th Congress, July 20-23, 2008, Rio Branco, Acre, Brasil with number 108636.

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    Date of creation: Jul 2008
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    Handle: RePEc:ags:sbrfsr:108636

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    Keywords: Agroindústria canavieira; Cana-de-açúcar; SUR; Sugar and ethanol sector; Sugar cane; Crop Production/Industries;

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