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COVID-19, Tourism, and the Cost of Uneven Recovery

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  • Arriola, Christine
  • Kowalski, Przemyslaw
  • van Tongeren, Frank

Abstract

COVID-19 has had an unprecedented negative impact on the global economy, and the effects are felt most acutely in the tourism sector. A safe return of the international tourism sector is essential to the million’s of people around the globe who rely on this sector for their livelihood. Given the nature of the international tourism industry, the sector’s rebound depends on a coordinated effort among governments to relax cross-border travel restrictions. This paper attempts to quantify the cost if these efforts fail. Using the OECD METRO model, we find that an uneven recovery in the tourism sectors would reduce the gains in real GDP by 1.4 USD trln, relative to an even recovery where all countries simultaneously relax restrictions on the tourism sector to the same degree

Suggested Citation

  • Arriola, Christine & Kowalski, Przemyslaw & van Tongeren, Frank, 2022. "COVID-19, Tourism, and the Cost of Uneven Recovery," Conference papers 333411, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:333411
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    Keywords

    International Relations/Trade; International Relations/Trade;

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