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The economic impacts of climate policies under the shared socioeconomic pathways

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  • Homma, Takashi
  • Akimoto, Keigo

Abstract

This paper discusses economic impacts of climate policies under the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) on population, GDP and technology. The concepts and storylines on the SSPs have been discussed by the international communities on integrated assessment model (IAM) and impact, adaptation, and vulnerability (IAV). This economic analysis, focusing on climate mitigation, is conducted by using an energy-economic model, DEARS (Dynamic Energy-economic Analysis model with multi-Regions and multi-Sectors) having economic and energy modules. We assume the climate policy cases as the CO2 emission pathways with the radiative forcings of 4.5, 3.7 and 3.0W/m2 in 2100. The results reveal that the industrial structure changes from energy-intensive to service sectors in all the cases. To compare the results of SSP4 (inequality world) to those of SSP5 (conventional development), the adverse economic impacts in SSP4 with the high prices of fossil fuels are relatively small. On the other hand, the adverse impacts in SSP5 with the low prices are high because the baseline CO2 emission levels are relatively high and the amounts of emission reductions in the policy cases are relatively large. These results are consistent with the SSPs storylines in which SSP4 and SSP5 have low and high challenges for climate mitigation, respectively

Suggested Citation

  • Homma, Takashi & Akimoto, Keigo, 2015. "The economic impacts of climate policies under the shared socioeconomic pathways," Conference papers 332579, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:332579
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