IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/pugtwp/332503.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Potential Economic Impact of a "Green Revolution" in Sub-Saharan Africa: a CGE analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Dudu, Hasan
  • Vinyes, Cristina
  • Ferrari, Emanuele

Abstract

Africa, more specifically Sub Saharan Africa (SSA), largely missed out on the green revolution and hence is considered to have a large potential for a green revolution in the near future. Given this background, in this paper a global CGE Model is used to analyze the economy-wide effects of a potential ‘green revolution’ in SSA. Following many studies in the literature a potential green revolution is modelled as an increase in TFP, on the other hand, the uniqueness of this study is to introduce the observed and desired yield changes and let the model determine the required TFP change to attain these yield levels. Further, a stochastic yield change is introduced as a shock to the CGE model by using a Gaussian Quadrature approach. This way, instead of presenting only one point for a probable Green revolution one can analyse the effect of a green revolution under a whole possible set of yield changes. The preliminary results suggests that the effect on production is significant in all regions, even more so the wheat production in South African Development Community (DC) region and plant fibre production in Central Africa regions. The impact on international trade is highest for Eastern Africa while the highest GDP and welfare gain is observed in South African DC countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Dudu, Hasan & Vinyes, Cristina & Ferrari, Emanuele, 2014. "Potential Economic Impact of a "Green Revolution" in Sub-Saharan Africa: a CGE analysis," Conference papers 332503, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:332503
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/332503/files/6908.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:332503. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/gtpurus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.