Assessing the economic impact of COVID-19 on the agrifood system and on global food security: exploring different macro-economic and international trade scenarios

In this study, we perform an ex-ante analysis of the economic consequences of COVID-19 virus in the short term with a focus on effects for agri-food markets as well as global food security impacts. In the short term (2020-2021), we assess immediate economic consequences of the pandemic, including repurposed domestic agri-food production and trade measures concerning medical necessities. We quantify different macro-economic (GDP, labour supply, oilprices) and trade (consumption preference) scenarios using an economy-wide modelling framework. The modelling results shed light on the impact of the pandemic on food security across multiple dimensions. We found that the impact of COVID-19 on agri-food production is less than on the production of manufacturing and services. Food prices drop due to the crises and low oil prices. The impact on the three dimensions of food security is strikingly different. While food availability issues are relatively limited, food access becomes under pressure in all COVID-19 scenarios and especially with a second crises in 2021. The food access impact, measured by a food purchasing power index, is opposite to the impact on agricultural prices indicating that income developments are key to be taken into account. Effective policies are needed to address especially the food access dimension for unskilled workers.