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USDA Production Forecasts for Pork, Beef, and Broilers: A Further Evaluation

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Author Info
Sanders, Dwight R.
Manfredo, Mark R.
Abstract

This paper examines USDA one-step ahead forecasts of quarterly beef, pork, and poultry production. The forecasts are evaluated based on traditional criteria for optimality-efficiency and unbiasedness-as well as their performance versus an univariate time series model. The results suggest that the USDA forecasts are unbiased; however, they are generally not efficient. That is, they do not fully incorporate the information contained in past forecasts. Moreover, the USDA predictions do not encompass all the information contained in forecasts generated by simple time series models.

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File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18960
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management in its series 2001 Conference, April 23-24, 2001, St. Louis, Missouri with number 18960.

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Date of creation: 2001
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Handle: RePEc:ags:ncrone:18960

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Web page: http://www.agebb.missouri.edu/ncrext/ncr134/

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Related research
Keywords: Livestock Production/Industries;

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  1. Mills, Jeffrey B & Schroeder, Ted C., 2002. "Are Cattle On Feed Report Revisions Random And Does Industry Anticipate Them?," 2002 Annual Meeting, July 28-31, 2002, Long Beach, California 36643, Western Agricultural Economics Association. [Downloadable!]
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