Szenarien einer Bioökonomie für Deutschland aus gesellschaftlicher Perspektive

Within the BEPASO project, three scenarios have been developed which illustrate different possi-bilities for a bioeconomy in Germany in 2050. Bioeconomy refers to the transition from a fossil-based economy to a bio-based economy. The three developed scenarios "Bioeconomy on the Drip", "Bioeconomy Islands" and "Bioeconomy Change" evolved from an intensive stakeholder process with representative from industry, policy and science. The aim of this study here was to answer the question: How do citizens evaluate different scenarios of the bio-economy for Ger-many in 2050? To answer the research question raised, a qualitative (group discussions) and a quantitative survey step (online survey) were combined. From the citizens' point of view, the "Bioeconomy Change" scenario was the most acceptable since it was perceived to be sustainable and promising. Governmental measures such as the promotion of the use of renewable raw materials or a product tax based on the ecological foot-print of products were welcomed. However, a functioning compensation mechanism was reques-ted to cushion the likely financial burdens on low-income population groups. The acceptance of the "Bioeconomy Change" scenario depended largely on the attitudes of citizens towards the bio-economy. The more emphasis was placed on respecting natural interactions and on the need of sufficiency strategies, the greater the acceptance. The more relevant economic cost-benefit considerations were for the respondents, the lesser the acceptance. In the scenario "Bioeconomy Islands", the use of renewable energies and of use of bio-based raw materials were appreciated. According to the scenario, only industrialised countries were suppo-sed to benefit from these advances while developing countries presumably suffered from negati-ve ecological effects. These effects were heavily criticised. Also, the increasing social disparities described in this scenario were not acceptable from the respondents’ point of view. This scenario tended to be better perceived if respondents had a strong orientation towards technologic and economic efficiency. The “Bioeconomy on the Drip" scenario was the least accepted vision of the future due to its lack of sustainability. This was primarily attributed to the passive role of policy and the consumption-oriented lifestyle of the population. These disadvantages outweighed the positive effects, such as constant prices and unchanged living conditions. The more important an economic cost-benefit analysis was for respondents’ assessment of the bioeconomy, the better the "Bioeconomy on the Drip” scenario was perceived. In contrast, a positive environmental orientation had a negative effect on the perception of this scenario.