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Assessing Model Assumptions in Trade Liberalization Modeling: An Application to SWOPSIM

Author

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  • Herlihy, Michael
  • Haley, Stephen L.
  • Johnston, Brian G.

Abstract

This report reviews research on the effectiveness of acreage reduction programs and describes the methodology developed for the Static World Policy Simulation (SWOPSIM) modeling framework to capture the effect of removing these programs. It also analyzes the results of several sensitivity tests of a SWOPSIM model used by the Economic Research Service to study the effects of agricultural trade liberalization. Assumptions concerning how U.S. acreage reduction programs are modeled significantly influence predictions as to how trade liberalization affects commodity prices, production, and trade. However, these assumptions do not significantly influence predictions of how trade liberalization affects producer welfare. In terms of trade liberalization analysis, more crucial are the assumptions regarding agricultural commodity supply elasticities and the degree to which U.S. agricultural policies are decoup1ed from production.

Suggested Citation

  • Herlihy, Michael & Haley, Stephen L. & Johnston, Brian G., 1992. "Assessing Model Assumptions in Trade Liberalization Modeling: An Application to SWOPSIM," Working Papers 51134, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:iatrwp:51134
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.51134
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    Cited by:

    1. Roningen, Vernon & Dixit, Praveen & Sullivan, John & Hart, Tracy, 1991. "Overview of the Static World Policy Simulation (SWOPSIM) Modeling Framework," Staff Reports 278513, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    2. Liapis, Peter S., 1994. "Environmental And Economic Implications Of Alternative Ec Policies," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 26(1), pages 1-11, July.
    3. Roningen, Vernon & Dixit, Praveen & Sullivan, John & Hart, Tracey, 1991. "Overview of the Static World Policy Simulation (SWOPSIM) Modeling Framework," Staff Reports 278390, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.

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    Keywords

    International Relations/Trade;

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