A Global Model for Agriculture and Bioenergy: Application to Biofuel and Food Security in Peru and Tanzania

This paper describes a global model for agriculture and bioenergy (GLOMAB) that incorporates biomass, biofuels and bioelectricity sectors into the GTAP-Energy model by expanding the global GTAP database, production and consumption structures. Biofuels are separated between first- generation (sugar ethanol, starch ethanol) and second- generation (cellulosic ethanol) biofuels and associated biomass feedstocks (maize, sugar cane, crop residues, woody biomass). Beside biofuels, the model also incorporates bioelectricity (as separate form conventional electricity) which competes for the same biomass feedstocks with cellulosic ethanol sector (agricultural residues, woody biomass). With this broad-based representation of the bioenergy system likely to prevail over the medium term (2010-2020), the model offers a useful framework for analyzing the growing influence of biofuels on agricultural markets, the implications biofuel subsidies and tariffs on trade in biofuels and biomass, and a comparative analysis of alternative policies to mitigate role of GHG emissions (mandates versus carbon taxes). In this paper, we apply the model to an analysis of biofuels and food security for two developing countries – Peru and Tanzania, and examine the implications on food security. Preliminary results for Tanzania show that the implications of ethanol expansion depend on the feedstock used with Cassava-ethanol draws more additional labor and land then sugar-cane based ethanol. Moreover, greater productivity of feedstocks can alleviate the pressure on new lands required to meet new biofuel needs. While sugar cane ethanol may be more efficient in terms of resource use compared to biodiesel, the latter may have better opportunities for food security in terms of labor employment. However, suggestions for further research are suggested including expanding the CGE analysis to include micro-simulations where the implications for food security are assessed for specific household types.