The Accession of Romania to the European Union - Scenario Analysis for Key Agricultural Crop Markets Using AGMEMOD Model

Aiming the EU accession put new and significant challenges to the candiadte countries' policies, and the problem of the inclusion of their agricultural sectors was among the most difficult ones. AGMEMOD is an econometric model of the EU-25 + 2 candidate countries (Romania and Bulgaria) agricultural sector. This poster presents the baseline and the scenario results for several key agricultural products of Romania's model developed as part of AGMEMOD model. The model is an econometric, dynamic, multi-product partial equilibrium comodity model. The target of this approach is to evaluate the impact of the Common Agricultural Policy reforms upon the country's agricultural sector in perspective of its accession to the EU. The selected commodities are: soft wheat, barley, maize and sunflower. The baseline scenario depicts the results of the agricultural sector in Romania if the country would not join the EU and would continue with its own agricultural policy as applied until now. The main conclusion coming from the analysis of the baseline scenario is that rather few significant changes in the Romanian agricultural production would have occurred, such as mod est positive evolution of production and consumption for wheat and sunflower, and some stagnation in barley and maize. The Accession scenario of the model indicates a significant positive effect upon the wheat, maize and sunflower production. Together with a moderate increase in the consumption, overall some surpluses for export would be available, modest for maize, but significant for sunflower.