Technology, Prices And Incomes In West Pakistan Agriculture: Some Observations On The Green Revolution

Using a farm management model based on data froM the Pakistan Punjab, this paper analyzes the impact of the Green Revolution on the course of agricultural development. The results show important interactions between the use of new seed varieties and improved irrigation techniques, and highlight the sensitivity of changes in cropping patterns and intensity to relative prices. A comparison of the impact of technical change under domestic and world relative prices measures the effect of domestic price distortions on resource allocation in agriculture, and the implications for future price and mechanization policy are considered. The second part of the paper examines the distribution of benefits from technical change, especially its impact on the size distribution of income, under different assumptions about relative prices. In this section the conditions are defined under which technical change would result in a more equitable distribution of income. The impact on regional disparity is also treated. Finally, a consideration of the political impact of the Green Revolution on price and irrigation policies and on institutional reforms leads to the conclusion that uncontrolled technical change is likely to aggravate existing income disparity. The paper concludes with policy recommendations to promote efficiency and to ensure a humane process of structural change.