Population, Projections, And Policy: A Cautionary Perspective
AbstractPopulation projections depend on censuses, vital statistics, and sample surveys, all of which have deficiencies that are most marked in developing countries. Long-range projections by international agencies have recently undergone major revisions, and forecasts of the United States (U.S.) population have changed drastically over the past four years. The United Nations (UN) typically prepares high, medium, and low projections. Even the high projection contains optimistic assumptions about fertility decline, while assumptions of constant or increasing fertility receive no serious attention. This paper suggests that high and constant fertility projections should receive more attention from policymakers. They should treat medium estimates as targets achievable only through considerable programmatic effort. At the same time, they should plan economic and environmental efforts to deal with the population sizes implied by the high projections.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Environmental and Natural Resources Policy Training Project in its series Working Papers with number 11885.
Date of creation: 1994
Date of revision:
Labor and Human Capital;
You can help add them by filling out this form.
reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Access and download statisticsgeneral information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.