World Food Needs and the Optimal Allocations of Lands

In order to assess the future world food demand/supply balance for the next century, in relation to the land uses, we develop a model in which the society has to supply two types of food demand, namely, processed crop products and meat and dairy products. From the supply side, the society can resort to different classes of land. Each class of land can be allocated wholly or partially either to crop cultivation or to pasture or last to be lain fallow. Primary crop production can be transformed either into processed crop products to satisfy final needs, or into intermediate livestock products used as inputs within the intensive industrial farming system. The livestock products can also be obtained from the extensive grazing system. The increase in world population together with the increase in the per capita income boost the final demand for food products. In order to meet the future food demands, the structure of the livestock production system should be modified, the share of the intensive production system having to be increased. With respect to the optimal allocation of land, we have established different degrees of land scarcity. More precisely, as the land is getting scarcer, the share of the livestock products stemming from the intensive production system is steadily increasing. Thus, the cropland is rising at the expense of pastureland. The shadow value assigned to the different land classes is steadily increasing throughout the next century.