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Agricultural policy analysis in Finland with the AGMEMOD model: Lessons to be learnt?

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  • Niemi, Jyrki S.
  • Kettunen, Lauri
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    Abstract

    The objective of this paper is to assess empirically the impacts of further reform of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) on the agri-food sector in Finland. To meet the objective, an econometric model for Finnish agriculture - built as a part of the AGMEMOD project - was utilised. The projection and policy simulations presented in the paper demonstrate that the model provides the basis for relatively straightforward baseline projection, and an initial framework for agricultural policy analysis. Yet, there remains substantial scope for further work on the model. In particular, the effects of big policy shocks are clearly not adequately captured by the model. The linear equations of supply together with low elasticities estimated from historical data generate simulation results, which do not in our opinion fully capture farmers’ reactions to these changes.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by European Association of Agricultural Economists in its series 122nd Seminar, February 17-18, 2011, Ancona, Italy with number 99367.

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    Date of creation: 10 Feb 2011
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    Handle: RePEc:ags:eaa122:99367

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    Keywords: policy analysis; econometric models; Finland; commodity markets; Agricultural and Food Policy; C54; E17; Q18.;

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