Walrasian and Marshallian stability: An application to the Australian pig industry
AbstractThe Global Correspondence Principle of Samuelson states that global comparative static results hold even in the absence of an initial stable equilibrium. This principle has been applied in recent studies of international trade with variable returns to scale to resolve paradoxical results with respect to the Rybczynski and Stolper-Samuelson theorems. Takayama and Ide have shown that the principle may only applies if the initial equilibrium is Marshallian stable. This has implications for econometric forecasting, in that forecasts of prices and quantities may only be valid in the presence of Marshallian stability. We estimate a Vector Error Correction Model of the Australian pig industry and examine the stability of the model in both the Walrasian and Marshallian sense. We find that prior to the introduction of imports in 1990 the farm gate market was characterised by both Walrasian and Marshallian stability and after 1990 it was unstable in both senses. This suggests that market forecasts since 1990 need to be viewed with more than the usual caution.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society in its series 1999 Conference (43th), January 20-22, 1999, Christchurch, New Zealand with number 124531.
Date of creation: 19 Jan 1999
Date of revision:
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Marshallian and Walrasian Stability; Vector Error Correction Models; Impulse Response Functions; Speed of Adjustment; Pig Industry; Livestock Production/Industries; C32; C53; C62; F17; Q17;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- C62 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium
- F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
- Q17 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agriculture in International Trade
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