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Weather Distributions And Input Decisions In Crop Production

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  • Fletcher, Jerald J.
  • Dai, Qi

Abstract

Crop input decisions are often based on "normal" or average weather conditions. This paper compares the implications of using the mean of weather variables to using the entire distribution in determining optimal nitrogen fertilizer rates for corn in Indiana. In the case of a good (poor) weather-soil conditions for corn where the distribution skews to the left (right), using only the mean of weather variables in crop decision analysis would underestimate (overestimate) the expected crop yield. Either underestimating or overestimating expected yield implies input uses that may not be the most profitable. In this particular study, the economic losses implied by using only the mean rather than the whole distribution in nitrogen decision analrsis for corn ranged from $5.48 to $22. 77 per acre. Using the mean implies higher application rates and lower net returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Fletcher, Jerald J. & Dai, Qi, 1992. "Weather Distributions And Input Decisions In Crop Production," 1992 Annual Meeting, August 9-12, Baltimore, Maryland 271393, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea92:271393
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.271393
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