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An Econometric Model of World Wheat Trade With Emphasis on U.S. Exports

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  • Mitchell, Donald O.

Abstract

An econometric model of the international wheat market is developed and evaluated for forecasting U.S. wheat exports over a one year period. The model attempts to capture the essential elements of the demand for U.S. wheat exports by explaining the linkages between wheat importing and exporting regions. A total of 112 countries are aggregated into fourteen importing regions and five exporting regions. Net import demand equations are estimated for each of the fourteen importing regions using data from 1960-74. Export supply equations are also estimated for the five major exporting regions. These equations are combined with equations which project wheat production to develop a forecasting model of net wheat imports by each region. A market share approach is then used to obtain U.S. wheat exports.

Suggested Citation

  • Mitchell, Donald O., 1977. "An Econometric Model of World Wheat Trade With Emphasis on U.S. Exports," 1977 AAEA-WAEA Joint Meeting, July 31-August 3, San Diego, California 283590, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea77:283590
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.283590
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    Crop Production/Industries;

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