Total factor productivity inKenya: The links with trade policy

As an objective of development policy, productivity growth has been difficult to achievein many countries. For this reason, studies on sources of growth are a field of greatimportance to policy makers. Recent experience, particularly for East Asian countries,has highlighted the potential for achieving rapid and renewed growth in sub-SaharanAfrica through appropriate trade policy orientation. In Kenya, however, where the lastthree decades have seen attempts to foster growth through shifts in trade policy orientation,convincing evidence on the linkage between trade strategies and productivity growth isstill lacking.This study explores productivity sources in the manufacturing and agriculturalsectors using aggregated data over 1960–1995. Productivity is explained by: growth byfactor inputs, and change in total factor productivity. Agriculture is seen as a dynamicsector producing important linkages with the growth of other sectors. The manufacturingsector, on the other hand, is important in growth-oriented analysis, which generally perceives it as crucial for increasing the rate of growth for the whole economy. The studyestablishes the direction of the links between TFP change in these sectors with tradepolicy episodes such as imports, export penetration and trade volume.Nevertheless, the impact of trade policy on productivity remains inconclusive.Evidence suggests that more robust results with broader policy consensus could be obtainedif the analysis were extended to a disaggregated level for each of the sectors