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Bubbles or Volatility: A Markov-Switching Unit Root Test with Regime-Varying Error Variance

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  • Shu-Ping Shi

Abstract

We demonstrate that the constant variance assumption in the Markov-switching Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test proposed by Hall, Psaradakis and Sola (1999) may result in the misjudgement of bubbles. Upon relaxing this assumption to allow for regime-varying error variances in the Markov-switching ADF test (referred to as the MSADF-RV test), we revisit the integration properties of the money base, consumer price and exchange rate in Argentina from January 1983 to November 1989. Based on the MSADF-RV test, we observe the occurrence of volatility switches in the exchange rate and the consumer price instead of observing bubbles in these two series as in Hall, Psaradakis and Sola (1999)

Suggested Citation

  • Shu-Ping Shi, 2010. "Bubbles or Volatility: A Markov-Switching Unit Root Test with Regime-Varying Error Variance," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2010-524, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:acb:cbeeco:2010-524
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    File URL: https://www.cbe.anu.edu.au/researchpapers/econ/wp524.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Arora, Vipin & Gomis-Porqueras, Pedro & Shi, Shuping, 2013. "The divergence between core and headline inflation: Implications for consumers’ inflation expectations," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 38(PB), pages 497-504.
    2. Shu-Ping Shi & Yong Song, 2012. "Identifying Speculative Bubbles with an Infinite Hidden Markov Model," Working Paper series 26_12, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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