Measuring Convergence using Dynamic Equilibrium Models: Evidence from Chinese Provinces
AbstractWe propose a model to study economic convergence in the tradition of neoclassical growth theory. We employ a novel stochastic set-up of the Solow (1956) model with shocks to both capital and labor. Our novel approach identifies the speed of convergence directly from estimating the parameters which determine equilibrium dynamics. The inference on the structural parameters is done using a maximum-likelihood approach. We estimate our model using growth and population data for China’s provinces from 1978 to 2010. We report heterogeneity in the speed of convergence both across provinces and time. The Eastern provinces show a higher tendency of convergence, while there is no evidence of convergence for the Central and Western provinces. We find empirical evidence that the speed of convergence decreases over time for most provinces.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus in its series CREATES Research Papers with number 2012-26.
Date of creation: 30 May 2012
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Web page: http://www.econ.au.dk/afn/
Economic convergence; Dynamic stochastic equilibrium models; Solow model; Structural estimation;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- O40 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2012-06-13 (All new papers)
- NEP-DGE-2012-06-13 (Dynamic General Equilibrium)
- NEP-TRA-2012-06-13 (Transition Economics)
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