The Role of Dynamic Specification in Forecasting Volatility in the Presence of Jumps and Noisy High-Frequency Data
AbstractThis paper considers the performance of di erent long-memory dynamic models when forecasting volatility in the stock market using implied volatility as an exogenous variable in the information set. Observed volatility is sep- arated into its continuous and jump components in a framework that allows for consistent estimation in the presence of market microstructure noise. A comparison between a class of HAR- and ARFIMA models is facilitated on the basis of out-of-sample forecasting performance. Implied volatility conveys incremental information about future volatility in both specifications, improv- ing performance both in- and out-of-sample for all models. Furthermore, the ARFIMA class of models dominates the HAR speci cations in terms of out-of- sample performance both with and without implied volatility in the information set. A vectorized ARFIMA (vecARFIMA) model is introduced to control for possible endogeneity issues. This model is compared to a vecHAR speci cation, re-enforcing the results from the single equation framework.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus in its series CREATES Research Papers with number 2010-39.
Date of creation: 19 Aug 2010
Date of revision:
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Web page: http://www.econ.au.dk/afn/
ARFIMA; HAR; Implied Volatility; Jumps; Market Microstructure Noise; VecARFIMA; Volatility Forecasting;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-09-03 (All new papers)
- NEP-ECM-2010-09-03 (Econometrics)
- NEP-ETS-2010-09-03 (Econometric Time Series)
- NEP-FOR-2010-09-03 (Forecasting)
- NEP-MST-2010-09-03 (Market Microstructure)
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