Testing for rational bubbles in a co-explosive vector autoregression
AbstractWe derive the parameter restrictions that a standard equity market model implies for a bivariate vector autoregression for stock prices and dividends, and we show how to test these restrictions using likelihood ratio tests. The restrictions, which imply that stock returns are unpredictable, are derived both for a model without bubbles and for a model with a rational bubble. In both cases we show how the restrictions can be tested through standard chi-squared inference. The analysis for the no-bubble case is done within the traditional Johansen model for I(1) variables, while the bubble model is analysed using a co-explosive framework. The methodology is illustrated using US stock prices and dividends for the period 1872-2000.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus in its series CREATES Research Papers with number 2010-25.
Date of creation: 25 Jun 2010
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.econ.au.dk/afn/
Rational bubbles; Explosiveness and co-explosiveness; Cointegration; Vector autoregression; Likelihood ratio tests;
Other versions of this item:
- Tom Engsted & Bent Nielsen, 2012. "Testing for rational bubbles in a coexplosive vector autoregression," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 15(2), pages 226-254, 06.
- Tom Engsted & Bent Nielsen, 2010. "Testing for rational bubbles in a co-explosive vector autoregression," Economics Papers 2010-W06, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
- Bent Nielsen & Tom Engsted, 2010. "Testing for rational bubbles in a co-explosive vector autoregression," Economics Series Working Papers 2010-W06, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Bohl, Martin T., 2003. "Periodically collapsing bubbles in the US stock market?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 385-397.
- Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
- Jurgen Doornik & H. Peter Boswijk, 2003.
"Identifying, Estimating and Testing Restricted Cointegrated Systems: An Overview,"
Economics Series Working Papers
2003-W10, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- H. Peter Boswijk & Jurgen A. Doornik, 2004. "Identifying, estimating and testing restricted cointegrated systems: An overview," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 58(4), pages 440-465.
- H. Peter Boswijk & Jurgen Doornik, 2003. "Identifying, Estimating and Testing Restricted Cointegrated Systems: An Overview," Economics Papers 2003-W10, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
- Engsted, Tom, 2006. "Explosive bubbles in the cointegrated VAR model," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 154-162, June.
- Diba, Behzad T & Grossman, Herschel I, 1988. "Explosive Rational Bubbles in Stock Prices?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 520-30, June.
- Breusch, T S, 1978. "Testing for Autocorrelation in Dynamic Linear Models," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(31), pages 334-55, December.
- Bent Nielsen & Anders Rahbek, 2003. "Similarity Issues in Cointegration Models," Economics Series Working Papers 1998-W13, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Evans, George W, 1991. "Pitfalls in Testing for Explosive Bubbles in Asset Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 922-30, September.
- Xiaohu Wang & Jun Yu, 2013. "Limit Theory for an Explosive Autoregressive Process," Working Papers 08-2013, Singapore Management University, School of Economics.
- Kivedal, Bjørnar Karlsen, 2013. "Testing for rational bubbles in the US housing market," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 38(PB), pages 369-381.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.