The Role of Seroprevalence in Evidence for Policy-Making During COVID-19

Seroprevalence studies estimate the share of population that has been infected by a virus and can provide valuable information for policymakers as they respond to a pandemic, especially in its early stages. The spread of COVID-19 globally, as measured by seroprevalence studies, has been considerably more extensive than what is perceived from the case numbers reported by governments worldwide. The inability to incorporate evidence from such studies in a timely manner contributed to missed opportunities in the policy response to COVID-19. In this chapter, we discuss the potential role that seroprevalence studies can play in providing timely evidence for policy-making as well as the factors that lead to impediments in the adoption of such evidence. Building on our own experience with conducting some of the earliest seroprevalence studies in India, we describe the challenges of policy-making in crises and of incorporating uncertainty into this process, and we also examine some of the technical challenges in conducting these studies. In addition, we discuss policy responses that could be informed by evidence from such studies and highlight the lessons learned that might inform efforts in a future crisis, should it ever occur.