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Covariance complexity and rates of return on assets

In: HANDBOOK OF APPLIED INVESTMENT RESEARCH

Author

Listed:
  • Leonard C. MacLean
  • Michael E. Foster
  • William T. Ziemba

Abstract

This paper considers the estimation of the expected rate of return on a set of risky assets. The approach to estimation focuses on the covariance matrix for the returns. The structure in the covariance matrix determines shared information which is useful in estimating the mean return for each asset. An empirical Bayes estimator is developed using the covariance structure of the returns distribution. The estimator is an improvement on the maximum likelihood and Bayes–Stein estimators in terms of mean squared error. The effect of reduced estimation error on accumulated wealth is analyzed for the portfolio choice model with constant relative risk aversion utility.

Suggested Citation

  • Leonard C. MacLean & Michael E. Foster & William T. Ziemba, 2020. "Covariance complexity and rates of return on assets," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: John B Guerard & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF APPLIED INVESTMENT RESEARCH, chapter 4, pages 41-61, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:wschap:9789811222634_0004
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Applied Investments; Financial Forecasting; Portfolio Theory; Investment Strategies; Fundamental and Economic Anomalies; Behaviour of Investors;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

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