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Importance of Intercity Passenger Transport for Climate Change Issues

In: Intercity Transport and Climate Change

Author

Listed:
  • Yoshitsugu Hayashi

    (Nagoya University)

  • Iwao Matsuoka

    (The Sasakawa Peace Foundation)

  • Koichi Fujisaki

    ((Formerly) Institution for Transport Policy Studies (ITPS))

  • Ryo Itoh

    (Nagoya City University)

  • Hirokazu Kato

    (Nagoya University)

  • Werner Rothengatter

    (Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT))

  • Hiroyuki Takeshita

    (Institution for Transport Policy Studies (ITPS))

Abstract

Long-term forecasts expect an increase of world population to 9 billion by 2050 while it was 3.5 billion in 1960 and 7 billion in 2010. Population and economic growth will lead to an increase of mobility from 5500 billion (1960) to 105,000 billion pass-km (2050, see Schafer and Victor, Transp Res Part A 34:171–205, 2000). North America and Europe accounted for 64 % of passenger kilometers in 1960, but their shares are expected to drop to 52 % by 2050 while the Asian share might go up from 8 to 32 %. In the developing countries, the major part of this growth will occur in urban areas because of the rapid developments of megacities and related urban transport. In emerging economies, the structural development of passenger transport will depend on income and age structure of the population. Looking at the example of China, one discovers that despite the continuing growth of urban transport, the intercity travel over longer distances shows the highest growth rate. Higher income for increasing segments of population and improving travel conditions—see the development of air traffic and high-speed rail (HSR)—will in particular stimulate intercity travel activities. In economies with aging population like Europe or Japan, urban and short-distance traffic is beginning to decline, while intercity traffic will continue to increase.

Suggested Citation

  • Yoshitsugu Hayashi & Iwao Matsuoka & Koichi Fujisaki & Ryo Itoh & Hirokazu Kato & Werner Rothengatter & Hiroyuki Takeshita, 2015. "Importance of Intercity Passenger Transport for Climate Change Issues," Transportation Research, Economics and Policy, in: Yoshitsugu Hayashi & Shigeru Morichi & Tae Hoon Oum & Werner Rothengatter (ed.), Intercity Transport and Climate Change, edition 127, chapter 1, pages 1-30, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:trachp:978-3-319-06523-6_1
    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-06523-6_1
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    Cited by:

    1. Hayashi, Yoshitsugu & Seetharam, K. E. & Bharule, Shreyas (ed.), 2020. "Handbook on High-Speed Rail and Quality of Life," ADBI Books, Asian Development Bank Institute, number 14, Décembre.

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