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How the COVID-19 Crisis is Impacting Postal Markets? A New Assessment One Year Later

In: Postal Strategies

Author

Listed:
  • Antonin Arlandis

    (“Doctrine and Modelization” Department, Direction of Regulation, Competition and Institutional Affairs—La Poste Groupe)

  • Catherine Cazals

    (TSE, University of Toulouse Capitole)

  • Eric Gautier

    (TSE, University of Toulouse Capitole)

  • Nour Meddahi

    (TSE, University of Toulouse Capitole)

Abstract

The Covid-19 crisis has a huge impact on postal markets. In 2020 this crisis has led to a decline in economic activity, which has resulted in a decrease larger than usual in mail volumes and revenues for postal operators. However, parcel volumes and revenues of the main postal operators increased faster than usual. Since then, large vaccination and test campaigns in many countries mitigated this impact and has led economic activity to gradually recover, even when the pandemic resurged. The growth in parcel volumes has slowed down somewhat in 2021 compared to 2020. In 2021 mail volumes appear to have stabilized compared to 2020 in some countries (or at least have decreased less than in 2020 in other countries). An econometric analysis is carried out to investigate the effect of Covid-19 in terms of structural break. Our results seem to indicate that Covid-19 did not have an effect on the structural relation between mail volumes and GDP and trend (a proxy for e-substitution) but had an effect on the structural relation between parcel volumes and GDP and e-commerce.

Suggested Citation

  • Antonin Arlandis & Catherine Cazals & Eric Gautier & Nour Meddahi, 2023. "How the COVID-19 Crisis is Impacting Postal Markets? A New Assessment One Year Later," Topics in Regulatory Economics and Policy, in: Pier Luigi Parcu & Timothy J. Brennan & Victor Glass (ed.), Postal Strategies, pages 301-311, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:topchp:978-3-031-25362-1_22
    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-031-25362-1_22
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