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Statistically Testing the Representative Capability

In: Analytical Theory of Democracy

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  • Andranik Tangian

    (Karlsruhe Institute of Technology)

Abstract

A statistical test of the representative capability of a candidate, party or coalition is developed. As observations, we consider how well the candidate (coalition) positions on several policy issues, such as ‘Domestic deployment of federal armed forces?’—Yes/No; ‘Taxation of passenger diesel cars?’—Yes/No, etc., match up with the prevailing public opinion on these issues. If the issues are few and the candidates are numerous, then even a perfect match says little about the representative capability, because it is always possible that one candidate, or one coalition out of many, will align with public opinion on a couple of topics. To perform the test, the probability of the observed match of the candidate/coalition position with the prevailing public opinion is found under the null hypothesis, assuming no representative capability but coincidence by chance. If this probability is small, then the null hypothesis is rejected and the alternative hypothesis (existence of representative capability) is accepted. The test developed is applied to the five German parties and their coalitions considered in Chapters 8 and 13.

Suggested Citation

  • Andranik Tangian, 2020. "Statistically Testing the Representative Capability," Studies in Choice and Welfare, in: Analytical Theory of Democracy, chapter 0, pages 815-903, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:stcchp:978-3-030-39691-6_22
    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-39691-6_22
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