A Cauldron of Anxiety: War or Peace?

The future of the global order is anticipated to be determined less by conflicts in EuropeEurope and more by geopolitical rivalry and possible confrontationsConfrontation in maritime AsiaMaritime Asia, with TaiwanTaiwan at the centre of attention. This chapter examines the central flashpointsFlashpoints in maritime AsiaMaritime Asia, with a particular focus on Taiwan’sTaiwan status and the South China SeaSouth China Sea. It seeks to unpack the critical geostrategicGeostrategic, economic, and political complexities that underpin these issues. This chapter argues that the crux of the conflict between China and the United States lies in China’s prospective rise as a significant naval powerSea/naval power. This prominence is anticipated to span both the Pacific and Indian OceansIndian Ocean and is likely to be reinforced with credible maritime deterrenceDeterrence capacities. To better understand the motives behind China’s naval powerSea/naval power expansion, the chapter delves into the history of Chinese naval development, contrasting it with European and U.S. experiences. Finally, it identifies the constraints that hinder China’s ability to extend its maritime influence and engage in potential conflicts or wars.