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Handling Uncertainty in Engineered Systems

In: Handbook of Systems Sciences

Author

Listed:
  • Azad M. Madni

    (University of Southern California)

  • A. Terry Bahill

    (University of Arizona)

Abstract

This chapter identifies essential activities in the tradeoff study process that are responsible for addressing uncertainty and describes how to handle these uncertainties. These activities all involve human decision-making, which is the source of common mistakes arising from confirmation bias, severity amplifiers, and framing. This chapter explains how these activities are affected by mental mistakes such as biases, simplifying heuristics, cognitive illusions, emotions, fallacies, and psychological traps. This chapter presents examples for handling uncertainty by managing mistakes caused by uncertainty in the problem statement, the evaluation criteria, and weights of importance. It also shows how certainty factors and sensitivity analyzes can help handle uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Azad M. Madni & A. Terry Bahill, 2021. "Handling Uncertainty in Engineered Systems," Springer Books, in: Gary S. Metcalf & Kyoichi Kijima & Hiroshi Deguchi (ed.), Handbook of Systems Sciences, chapter 41, pages 1167-1199, Springer.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:sprchp:978-981-15-0720-5_22
    DOI: 10.1007/978-981-15-0720-5_22
    as

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