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Thread Steel Price Index Prediction in China Based On ARIMA Model

In: Liss 2014

Author

Listed:
  • Zhishuo Liu

    (Beijing Jiaotong University)

  • Shuang Zhu

    (Beijing Jiaotong University)

  • Yongcong Wang

    (Beijing Jiaotong University)

  • Baopeng Zhang

    (Beijing Jiaotong University)

  • Lingyun Wei

    (Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications)

Abstract

Thread Steel price can be well represented the changing tendency of the china steel market price. Aiming at the problems of price index on the steel production and sales ,the ARIMA model based on the time series analysis provides the basic theory and a good solution. According to the price index data of the China thread steel market from January 1, 2013 to October 30, 2013, the ARIMA(3,1,4) model is established to analyze and forecast the first ten period of China thread steel price index in November 2013.the result shows that the short-term (four phases) forecast is very efficient with mean error only 0.68 %;while the long-term (ten phases) predictive error is 1.94 %, which is not ideal. so the short-term predictive result of the established model is reasonably reliable, and has good application value,which further verifies the ARIMA model is suitable for short-term forecast of sample data sequence.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhishuo Liu & Shuang Zhu & Yongcong Wang & Baopeng Zhang & Lingyun Wei, 2015. "Thread Steel Price Index Prediction in China Based On ARIMA Model," Springer Books, in: Zhenji Zhang & Zuojun Max Shen & Juliang Zhang & Runtong Zhang (ed.), Liss 2014, edition 127, pages 609-614, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:sprchp:978-3-662-43871-8_88
    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-662-43871-8_88
    as

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