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The Slowdown in the Data

In: The Great Economic Slowdown

Author

Listed:
  • Edmund Phelps

    (Columbia University)

  • Hian Teck Hoon

    (Singapore Management University)

  • Gylfi Zoega

    (University of Iceland)

Abstract

The data is explored in light of the models. Using principal components analysis, we derive the common pattern of the causal variables: productivity growth, population growth and public debt; and the affected variables—real interest rates, investment, share prices, the share of profits, male labor force participation and unemployment. The estimation of a Taylor equation shows the effect of a fall in productivity growth on equilibrium real interest rates. A panel regression using historical data shows that the productivity slowdown has affected the rate of return to shares and housing, investment, real wage growth and employment.

Suggested Citation

  • Edmund Phelps & Hian Teck Hoon & Gylfi Zoega, 2023. "The Slowdown in the Data," Springer Books, in: The Great Economic Slowdown, chapter 5, pages 69-95, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:sprchp:978-3-031-31441-4_5
    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-031-31441-4_5
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