Conclusions and Path Forward

Although there is some uncertainty given the hype around “energy transition”, natural gas demand should increase globally for at least another two decades. Growing economies in the New World certainly will consume more natural gas for many reasons: the global resource base is abundant; LNG trade is making gas more widely available; its cleaner burning qualities make it a fuel of choice over coal and liquids; and its reliability and scalability give it an advantage over intermittent wind and solar. Overall, natural gas fits energy-secure portfolios of growing economies that prioritize economic and human development with benefits visible to the public in the short-term. In contrast, decarbonization policies are long-term and uncertain with geographically dispersed benefits. Even in the Old World, societies can only balance retirement of coal plants at sufficient scale and quickly enough with combined-cycle gas plants. The shift in demand growth from the more market-friendly Old World to the New World, where governments and state-owned entities dominate energy sectors, raises questions about natural gas monetization. Can resources be developed and supplies delivered to meet both commercial criteria and affordability, especially to substitute for coal in growing markets? Public funding has sustained gas infrastructure development in many countries, and subsidies have made gas competitive for many consumers. Can governments continue promoting gas, given other spending priorities in a world that is de-globalizing, with even the Chinese economy facing budget constraints?