EAEU Intra-Regional Trade

The development of intra-regional trade and other forms of economic cooperation was initially defined as the most important task of creating the Customs Union (2010) and then the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU 2015). In the EAEU a common market for goods functions, although a number of sensitive exemptions and restrictions remain, while a common market for services is being formed. Mutual trade of EAEU countries is very highly concentrated on Russia, which strongly depends on the state of the Russian domestic market and the terms of Russian energy supplies to its EAEU partners. Smaller EAEU countries—Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, and Armenia—are most focused on mutual trade, while for Russia the role of trading partners in the EAEU is much lower. For the Union as a whole, the share of intra-regional trade in total foreign trade turnover is still very modest—12 to 14 per cent in the last decade—but for the participating countries, the quality of this trade is very important as, in contrast to supplies to third countries, a significantly larger share belongs to manufacturing products and the nomenclature of trade is much wider. There is a slight but steady increase in the role of mutual trade in meeting the internal demand of the EAEU in agricultural and industrial products. The low level of competitive regional supplies of technological goods and services, the weak development of intra-industry trade, large trade imbalances in favor of Russia, violations of the Customs Union rules by the parties, and the deviation of trade flows in favor of major non-regional players, primarily China and the EU, are all factors which have a restraining effect on mutual trade. The role of the integration factor in the development of intra-regional trade can be traced rather poorly, although some positive impact on trade took place in 2011–2013 with the emerging common market of goods, and for Armenia after joining the EAEU in 2015. Calculations based on the CGE-model predict the possibility of a significant increase in mutual trade in the case of the complete elimination of non-tariff barriers, as well as the stimulating effect on intra-regional trade in the case of Uzbekistan’s accession to the EAEU. The real prospects for a substantial expansion of trade within the EAEU are small, due to the existing restrictions and contradictions between partners, as well as due to the already existing phenomenon of overtrading in the EAEU region.