Revolution Forecasting—Formulation of the Problem

This chapter deals with the problem of revolution forecasting. The first question it raises is whether revolutions have any future, or if their time has gone. The second question addressed is whether revolution forecasting is possible at all. The third is which countries are likely to have revolutions in the future. Shults maintains that the understanding of the role of revolutions in the history of state development and modern nation-building allows to make a precise conclusion that revolutions are most likely to happen in states that have had no basic revolutions to overturn traditional political systems. He argues that the main candidates for revolutions today are Morocco, Brunei and the so-called “Gulf monarchies” as well as Afghanistan and most countries in Africa. These countries are changing, but they need much more time before true revolutions are likely to occur. Correcting revolutions are also possible in communist countries: China, Vietnam, North Korea, Laos, and Cuba.