Revolutions, Counterrevolutions, and Democracy

Grinin and Korotayev in this chapter study the issue of democratization of countries within the context of revolutions and globalization. They point to the unreasonably high economic and social costs of a rapid transition to democracy as a result of revolutions or of similar large-scale events for those countries unprepared for it. It happened often enough that revolutions were more likely to hamper than promote democracy and economic growth. The authors believe that in a number of cases the authoritarian regimes turn out to be more effective in economic and social terms in comparison with emerging democracies especially of the revolutionary type, which are often incapable of insuring social order and may have a swing to authoritarianism. Effective authoritarian regimes can also be a suitable form of a transition to efficient and stable democracy. This chapter investigates various correlations between revolutionary events and possibilities of establishing democracy in a society on the basis of historical and contemporary examples. The authors demonstrate that one should take into account a country's degree of sociopolitical and cultural preparedness for democratic institutions. In case of a favorable background (including high levels of economic development, education, urbanization, and so on), revolutions can proceed smoothly, as “velvet revolutions” with efficient outcomes. On the contrary, democracy is established with much difficulty, throwbacks, return to authoritarianism, and with outbreaks of violence and military takeovers in countries with low levels of education and urbanization, pronounced youth bulges, low levels of economic development, with low female status, with widespread religious fundamental ideology, where a substantial part of the population hardly ever hears of democracy while the liberal intellectuals idealize this form, and where the opposing parties are not willing to respect the rules of the democratic game when defeated in elections. There is clearly a cluster of variables, that move mostly together and create characteristic patterns of revolutionary action and outcomes.