IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/h/spr/lnechp/978-3-642-31301-1_18.html
   My bibliography  Save this book chapter

Initial Predictions in Learning-to-Forecast Experiment

In: Managing Market Complexity

Author

Listed:
  • Cees Diks

    (CeNDEF, University of Amsterdam)

  • Tomasz Makarewicz

    (CeNDEF, University of Amsterdam)

Abstract

In this paper we estimate the distribution of the initial predictions of the Heemeijer et al. [5] Learning-to-Forecast experiment. By design, these initial predictions were uninformed. We show that in fact they have a non-continuous distribution and that they systematically under-evaluate the fundamental price. Our conclusions are based on Diks et al. [2] test which measures the proximity of two vector sets even if their underlying distributions are non-continuous.We show how this test can be used as a fitness for Genetic Algorithm optimization procedure. The resulting methodology allows for fitting non-continuous distribution into abundant empirical data and is designed for repeated experiments.

Suggested Citation

  • Cees Diks & Tomasz Makarewicz, 2012. "Initial Predictions in Learning-to-Forecast Experiment," Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, in: Andrea Teglio & Simone Alfarano & Eva Camacho-Cuena & Miguel GinĂ©s-Vilar (ed.), Managing Market Complexity, edition 127, chapter 0, pages 223-235, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:lnechp:978-3-642-31301-1_18
    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-642-31301-1_18
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mauersberger, Felix, 2021. "Monetary policy rules in a non-rational world: A macroeconomic experiment," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:lnechp:978-3-642-31301-1_18. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.